ISWC OpenIR  > 水保所知识产出(1956---)
黄土高原粮食生产与粮食安全
李文军
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor郝明德
2013-12
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Keyword黄土高原 粮食生产 生态成本 粮食生产力 粮食安全
Abstract

针对长期困扰黄土高原地区的粮食问题,开展黄土高原两大地貌类型区黄土丘陵
沟壑区和黄土高塬沟壑区粮食生产与粮食安全研究,分析粮食产量变化趋势及影响因
素,探讨不同时间空间尺度区域粮食生产生态成本变化,对不同空间尺度粮食生产力
进行预测,研究不同时间空间尺度黄土高原粮食安全态势变化,以解决区域粮食生产
与农业可持续增长过程中所面临生态环境与经济发展不协调问题,完善学科研究体
系,促进黄土高原地区粮食安全和社会经济可持续发展。主要研究结论如下:
(1)黄土高原地区粮食产量变化受人口、粮食播种面积、气候和政策等外在因
素影响呈阶段式波动上升趋势,黄土丘陵沟壑区安塞县从1949年到2009年粮食产量可
以划分为三个阶段,分别为1949年到1974年、1975年到1989和1990年到2009,粮食平
均产量分别为1.89万t、3.72万t和6.1万t;黄土高塬沟壑区长武县粮食产量也可划分为
三个阶段,分别为1949年到1970年、1971年到1980年和1981年到2008年,粮食平均产
量分别为2.67万t、3.86万t和4.95万t。
(2)在县级尺度上,黄土丘陵沟壑区安塞县粮食生产生态成本从1950年的887.26
万元增加到2010年的3098.15万元,增加了近3倍多,黄土高塬沟壑区长武县粮食生产
生态成本从1950年的1461.02万元增加到2008年的3058.86万元,增加了2倍多;在流域
尺度上,黄土丘陵沟壑区纸坊沟流域粮食生产生态成本由1978年的24.86万元减少到
2003年的5.52万元,黄土高塬沟壑区王东沟流域粮食生产生态成本由1986年的13.86
万元减少到2005年的9.6万元。
(3)在县级尺度上,黄土丘陵沟壑区安塞县粮食产量以 20 年为移动平均周期预
测到 2019 年平均生产力为 7.06 万 t,粮食单产以 15 年为移动平均周期预测到 2019
年平均为 2.34t/hm 2 ;黄土高塬沟壑区长武县粮食产量以 25 年为移动平均周期预测到
2018 年平均生产力为 5.31 万 t,粮食单产以 25 年为移动平均周期预测到 2018 年平均为 3.86t/hm 2 。在流域尺度上,黄土高塬沟壑区王东沟粮食单产以 15 年为移动平均周
期到 2016 年平均为 5132kg/hm 2 。
(4)在田块尺度上,长期施肥增产作用明显,其中施 NPM 肥增产效果较好,
在干旱、常态、丰水年型下增产率分别为 144.58%、209.29%、247.54%。肥料对产量
贡献率的大小顺序为:NPM>NM>NP>PM>M>N>P,丰水年肥料对产量贡献率比常态
年和干旱年高。肥料配施交互作用中,N×P 交互作用最大,连应值为 1906.95kg/hm 2 ,
其次为 N×P×M,连应值为 823.16 kg/hm 2 。肥料配施可以使产量在较高水平上波动,
波动主要原因来自降水变化。丰水年成穗数、千粒重较常态年和干旱年高,NPM 处
理在三种年型下成穗数、穗粒数和千粒重较其它施肥处理高。
(5)从粮食安全综合值来看,在县级尺度上,黄土丘陵沟壑区安塞县和黄土高
塬沟壑区长武县粮食安全评价等级均经历了差、中到良的变化过程,在流域尺度上,
黄土丘陵沟壑区纸坊沟流域粮食安全状态在 2003 年处于中等级,黄土高塬沟壑区王
东沟流域粮食安全状态由 1986 年等级中上升到 2005 年等级良。
关键词:黄土高原;粮食生产;生态成本;粮食生产力;粮食安全

Other Abstract

According to the grain problem which has long puzzled the Loess Plateau Region, the
article developed the research of grain production and grain safety for two large
geomorphologic regions which were the loess hilly-gully region and loess gully region in
the Loess Plateau Region, analyzed the trend and influencing factors of grain production,
studied the changes of grain production ecological cost in different spatial and temporal
scale, to predict grain productiviy in different temporal scale, studied the changes of grain
safety of t in the Loess Plateau Region in different spatial and temporal scale, in order to
solve incoordination between ecological environment and economic development in the
growth process of grain production and agricultural development, to impove the subject
research system, and to promote the sustainable development of grain safety and social
economy in the Loess Plateau Region. The main research results as follows:
(1)The grain production of the Loess Plateau region influenced by population, grain
area, climate and policy had a stage fluctuation increasing trend. The grain production of
Ansai County in loess hilly-gully region could be divided into three phases from 1949 to
2009. The first stage was from 1949 to 1974, the second stage was from 1975 to 1989, and
the third stage was from 1990 to 2009. The average grain productions of three stages were
1.89×10 4 tons, 3.72×10 4 tons and 6.1×10 4 tons respectively. The grain production of
Changwu County in loess slope-gully region could be divided into three phases too from
1949 to 2008. The first stage was from 1949 to 1970, the second stage was from 1971 to
1980, and the third stage was from 1981 to 2008. The average grain productions of three
stages were 2.67×10 4 tons, 3.86×10 4 tons and 4.95×10 4 tons respectively.
(2)At county scale, the ecological cost of grain production was increased nearly three
times, from to 8.8726 million yuan in 1950 to 30.9815 million yuan in 2010 at Ansai Count
y of Loess Plateau Gullied-hilly; Comparison of Changwu County of Loess Plateau Gully,  it was increased nearly two times, from to14.6102 million yuan in 1950 to 30.5886 million
yuan in 2008. For watershed scale, the ecological cost of grain production was reduced
from to 248,600 yuan in 1978 to 55,200 yuan in 2003 at Zhifanggou watershed of Loess
Plateau Gullied-hilly; Comparison of Wangdonggou watershed of Loess Plateau Gully, it
was reduced from to 138,600 yuan in 1986 to 96,000 yuan in 2005.
(3)In the county scale, the moving average period of the grain yield in Ansai County
of loess hilly and gully region is 20 years. It is predicted that the average productivity will
be 70600t by 2019. The moving average period of grain yield per hectare is 15 years. It is
predicted that the grain yield per hectare will be 2.342.34t/hm 2 by 2019.The moving
average period of the grain yield in Ansai County of the Loess Plateau is 25 years. It is
predicted that the average productivity will be 53100t by 2018. The moving average period
of grain yield per hectare is 25 years. It is predicted that grain yield per hectare will be
3.86t/hm 2 by 2018. For watershed scale, the moving average period of grain yield per
hectare is 15 years, and the grain yield per hectare will be 5132kg/hm 2  by 2016.
(4)Long-term fertilization could improve wheat yields, and combination of N, P and
manure increased yields largest, which were 144.58%、209.29%、247.54% in three
different precipitation years. The contribution rate of fertilizers to wheat yields were
ranked as: NPM>NM>NP>PM>M>N>P, and The contribution rate of fertilizers to wheat
yields was higher in wet year than that in drought and normal year. The fertilizer
interaction of N and P fertilizer was highest, which was 1906.95kg/hm 2 , and the next was
N, P and M, which was 823.16 kg/hm 2 . Fertilizers cooperating application could make
wheat yields fluctuation in a high level, and the reason mainly come from the change of
precipitation. Amount of fringe and weightiness of thousand grains were higher in wet year
than that in normal and drought year, and the amount of fringe, grain of fringe and
weightiness of thousand grains of combination of N, P and manure were highest in three
different precipitation years.
(5)As to the comprehensive value of food security, in the county scale, the food
security evaluation grades of the Ansai county in loess hilly and gully region, and of the
Changwu county in loess gully region, both have experienced the change from poor to
good; in watershed scale, the food security status of Zhifanggou watershed in loess hilly
and gully region in 2003 was in the middle grade, and it of Wangdonggou watershed in
Loess Gully Region rose to good in 2005 from above the average (upper-middle-class/ the
high middle grade) in 1986.  

Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/9019
Collection水保所知识产出(1956---)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李文军. 黄土高原粮食生产与粮食安全[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2013.
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