ISWC OpenIR  > 水保所知识产出(1956---)
基于 CDM 的县南沟流域商品型生态农业系统 优化结构研究
顾 文
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor王继军
2014-05
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院北京
Place of Conferral北京
Keyword商品型生态农业 清洁发展机制 优化 耦合态势 县南沟流域
Abstract

退耕还林工程促进了县南沟流域商品型生态农业建设,使得流域生态环境得到
改善,农业资源与产业稳定发展,但是农业资源的不充分利用以及农业产业与农业
资源存在相悖态势,制约了流域商品型生态农业的进一步发展;同时退耕还林工程
的实施产生了较大的碳汇潜力。因此,优化商品型生态农业系统产业链网结构对于
促进流域内农业生态经济协调发展具有重要意义。针对县南沟流域农业产业与农业
资源相悖、商品型生态农业系统链网结构不完善等问题,在对流域退耕还林后资源
与产业结构以及农业系统固碳潜力分析的基础上,明确商品型生态农业系统优化的
关键点;以此为突破口,根据商品型生态农业系统可能的发展路径,设置系统不同
发展阶段及其可能情境对系统进行优化;并运用耦合过程模型通过对优化后商品型
生态农业系统耦合关系的分析,进一步论证各个阶段的差异,确认“基于清洁发展
机制下的县南沟流域商品型生态农业系统优化方案”能够实现生态资源的有效利用,
系统功能的最大化。主要结论如下:
(1)退耕还林工程的实施,改变了县南沟流域土地利用结构和产业结构,使商
品型生态农业得到发展,但农业产业与农业资源相悖态势仍然存在。退耕还林工程
使流域耕地:林地:草地由 1:0.65:3.71 变为 1:6.31:7.66;大量坡耕地转化为
林草地与梯田;林草覆盖率的显著提高使得流域水土流失得到有效控制;林果业与
高效设施农业的发展使得农民生活水平显著提高;林果业与种植业、工副业成为流
域经济来源的三大支柱,占总纯收入的 96%。虽然商品型生态农业系统取得发展,
但是农业资源的不充分利用与养殖业的发展滞后使得系统有待进一步优化。
(2)碳汇生产因土地利用类型及区位差异而发生变化,县南沟流域总碳汇量在
不断增加,碳汇潜力较大。2012 年县南沟流域净碳汇量比 1999 年多 4451.41t;不
同土地利用类型的净碳汇量表现出林地>耕地>草地>园地>建设用地;退耕林地是主
要的碳汇用地,林地碳汇比例由 1999 年的 56.81%增加到 2012 年的 87.11%,为进
一步提高流域固碳能力,可将重点放到提高退耕林生长质量上;耕地是除林地外最
大的碳汇用地,但其碳汇产品粮食籽粒和秸秆大部分被农户食用、出售、焚烧及饲
草的方式消耗掉,参与下一步的大气循环。流域不同区位、不同退耕力度形成了土地利用结构的差异,从而导致了碳汇的区位差异,总体表现出碳汇能力寨子湾>砖
窑沟>畔坡山>崖窑>方家河>何塌村,沟口与沟头的村庄碳汇能力较强。
(3)按照可能发展路径,设置了商品型生态农业发展的 3 个阶段 5 种情景,
论证了县南沟流域商品型生态农业系统遵循“现状发展态势→农业生态经济系统链
网构建阶段→农业经济系统与农业生态系统优化耦合阶段”的发展路径,且在农业经
济系统与农业生态系统优化耦合阶段土地利用结构发生较大改变。目前流域正处在
政府完全管制阶段,因此林草资源搁置、浪费,商品型生态农业系统链网结构不完
善,农民收入水平较低。而在政府逐步放开对林草资源的限制,并引导农民合理充
分利用草地资源、作物秸秆后,养殖业的进入完善了流域商品型生态农业系统链网
结构,使流域“种植业、林草资源→养殖业→农家肥→果业、大棚业”的链网结构运
行更顺畅。这两个阶段流域的农林牧土地利用结构为 1:6.31:7.66,变化不大,主要
是粮食用地和牧草地内部种植结构的调整。而在退耕工程实施一定年限后,林地完
全成林,农户可在清洁发展机制(CDM)下通过向市场提供林地碳汇获取收益,此
时土地利用结构变化较大,为 1:12.6:4.4 左右。
(4)山地苹果是贯穿县南沟流域的主导产业,同时阶段Ⅰ加强高效设施农业
建设、阶段Ⅱ建设养殖业、阶段Ⅲ发展林产业。在商品型生态农业系统发展的各个
阶段,苹果都是流域发展的主导产业。阶段Ⅰ的重点是加强山地苹果的主导地位和
高效设施农业建设,同时保护林草地资源,为将来发展畜牧业蓄积饲草。阶段Ⅱ的
建设重点是养殖业,在 B-1 情境下全舍饲养羊 2053 只,在 B-2 情境下半舍饲半放牧
养羊 2503 只。阶段Ⅲ的建设重点营造林产业,农户通过出售林地碳汇量促进经济增
长获取收益。
(5)优化方案提高了商品型生态农业系统的耦合效果,且随着系统结构的完善
其耦合效果在增强。在商品型生态农业系统链网构建阶段和农业经济系统与农业生
态系统优化耦合阶段,当农业生态系统达到均衡发展时,商品型生态农业系统的经
济系统演变速度分别为 0.0913×El(t)和 0.0999×El(t)。这两种情境下农业生态系统对
农业经济系统演变速度的贡献度均较现状发展态势(0.0673×El(t))大,说明通过商
品型生态农业系统链网构建和农业经济系统与农业生态系统优化耦合,农业产业的
发展依赖农业资源的程度加大,提高了商品型生态农业系统耦合效果。
(6)县南沟流域商品型生态农业进一步发展过程中,应以农业产业与农业资源耦
合为核心,根据不同区位的特征调整产业结构,通过提高资源利用效率完善系统产
业链网,同时根据商品型生态农业系统的发展分阶段、明确重点建设内容,以实现
商品型生态农业可持续发展。
关键词:商品型生态农业;清洁发展机制;优化;耦合态势;县南沟流域

Other Abstract

As the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) project developed in Xiannangou
watershed, ecological agriculture with commodity (EAC) improved and agro-resources
and agro-practices has been restored and advanced steadily. However, the inadequate use
of agro-resources and the inconsistency between agro-resources and agro-practices is still
emerging, which definitely constrains the further development of EAC in this area.
Meanwhile, the SLCP also brings a great potential of carbon sink. Therefore, optimizing
the chain network structure of ecological agricultural system with commodity (EASC)
plays an important role in accelerating agriculture eco-economic coordinate development.
Since the system of agro-practices grow inconsistently with agro-resources, the chain
network structure of EASC is incomplete. To solve these problems, it’s essential to make
clear the key point of optimized EASC on the basis of resource and industrial structure &
carbon sink potential of agro-system analysis after SLCP implemented. EASC is
optimized by setting different phases and scenarios according to the probable
development paths of it. Moreover, the relationship between optimized EASC was
analyzed by using coupling process model and further clarified the difference of each
phase. Thus, some strategies were proposed. The main results are as follows:
(1) The SLCP has changed land use and industrial structure of Xiannangou watershed,
and hence EAC also developed. However, the inconsistency between agro-practices and
agro-resources is still existed. The SLCP make land use structure from 1:0.65:3.71 to
1:6.31:7.66. A large amount of slope cropland turns to woodland or grassland or terrace.
Soil erosion has been controlled for the significant improvement of grass and forest
coverage. The development of fruit and efficient facility agriculture has enhanced the
standard of living. The three dominant industry of Xiannangou watershed are industry
fruit, planting and avocation, which account for 96 percent of net income. Although  EASC developed, it remains to be further optimized on account of the inadequate use of
agro-resources and inadequate development of graziery.
(2) The change of Land use and location has altered the carbon sink . Total amount
of carbon sequestration is increasing and has a great potential of carbon sink. The net
carbon sinks in 2012 have increased 4451.41t compared with that of 1999. Different land
use structures bring different net carbon sink, with in descending order: woodland,
cultivated land, grassland, orchard, and construction land. The primary land for carbon
sink is the woodland of SLCP, whose carbon sink percent increased from 56.81% in 1999
to 87.11% in 2012. To further enhance the ability of carbon sink in Xiannangou
watershed, it will aim to improve the quality of SLCP land growth. Cultivated land is
second to woodland in carbon sink. But its products such as seed and straw are consumed
in different ways of eating, selling, burning and grazing. Then it participates in the next
step of atmospheric circulation. Location and the degree of SLCP make the difference of
land use structure, and then they make the diversity of location carbon sinks. The ability
of carbon sink in descending order is zhaiziwan, zhuanyaogou, panposhan, yayao,
fangjiahe, heta. And the location watershed outlet and gully head have stronger ability of
carbon sink.
(3) According to the possible development path of EAC, it demonstrate that EAC
follow the path of “the development trend of the status quo → the modified chain
network construction of EASC → the optimization of agricultural economic system and
agricultural ecosystem coupling” by setting 3 phases and 5 scenarios of EAC. And the
structure of agricultural economic system and agro-ecological system optimized coupling
phase will have a great change. Xiannangou watershed is controlled by government now,
so resources of woodland and grassland are wasted, the chain network structure of EASC
is incomplete, and income of farmer is low. When the government slow down the
limitation gradually of woodland and grassland resources, guiding peasants to make full
use of grassland resources and crop straw, graziery make the chain network structure of
EASC completed, making the chain “planting industry, resources of woodland and
grassland→graziery→ farmyard manure→ industry fruit, greenhouse” run more
smoothly. In these two phases, the land use structure is 1:6.31:7.66. It has a little change,
which is the internal adjustment of planting structure about grain land and grassland.
When the woodland grows to mature woodland after SLCP, farmer can earn profits by
offering carbon sinks to market under clean development mechanism (CDM). At the
same time, land use structure has a big change to 1:12.6:4.4. (4) Mountain apple is the dominant industry along all phases of EAC. At the same
time, phaseⅠshould enhance the construction of efficient facility agriculture, phaseⅡ
construct graziery and phase Ⅲ develop forest estate. Along all phases the development
of EASC, the dominant industry is apple in Xiannangou watershed. The key point of
phaseⅠis enhance the dominant status of apple and construct efficient facility agriculture.
It is important to protect woodland and grassland resources for graziery. The construction
emphasis of phaseⅡis graziery. There have 2053 sheep for barn feeding in the scenario
B-1 and 2053 sheep for barn feeding and grazing in the scenario B-2. The key point of
phase Ⅲ is carry on forest estate. So farmer can get profit from selling carbon sinks of
woodland.
(5) Optimization scheme improved the coupling effect of EASC, and with the
improvement of the system structure the coupling effect is better. When agro-ecological
system reaches the self-adjusting tipping point, the agricultural economic system
evolution speed of the phase of EASC in the chain network construction & the optimized
coupling phase of agricultural economic system and agricultural ecosystem respectively
are 0.0913×El(t) & 0.0999×El(t). The evolution rate contribution degree that
agricultural ecosystem for agricultural economic system in these two scenarios is bigger
than the development trend of the status quo. This results show that through the contrast
of the chain network of EASC and the optimized coupling of agricultural economic
system and agricultural ecosystem, the degree that the development of agricultural
industry relies on the agricultural resources is increasing. And the coupling effect of
EASC is increasing too.
(6) The EASC in Xiannangou watershed should be with the agricultural industry and
agricultural resource coupling as the core in the next development. In order to realize the
sustainable development strategies for EASC, some strategies were put forward:
adjusting the industrial structure according to the characteristics of different location,
completing industrial chain network of EASC through improving the efficiency of
resource use, breaking phases and defining the key point of construction according to the
development of EASC.
Key Words:Ecological agriculture with commodity; Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM); optimize; coupling relationship; Xiannangou Watershed 

Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8997
Collection水保所知识产出(1956---)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
顾 文. 基于 CDM 的县南沟流域商品型生态农业系统 优化结构研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院北京,2014.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
基于 CDM 的县南沟流域商品型生态农(2102KB)学位论文 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAApplication Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[顾 文]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[顾 文]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[顾 文]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.