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渭河流域旱涝灾害研究 渭河流域旱涝灾害研究
段文明
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor穆兴民
2012-05
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Keyword渭河流域 旱涝时空分布 气候变化 旱涝事件
Abstract

渭河流域是中华文明的发祥地,涉及甘肃、宁夏、陕西三省(区)。地处黄土高原南缘,秦岭北麓,属大陆性季风气候区、干旱地区和湿润地区的过渡地带。春暖干旱,夏季热而多雨但有伏旱,秋凉湿润,冬季干燥寒冷雨雪稀少。流域自然生态系统脆弱,对气候变化的反应敏感,抵御自然变化能力差。旱涝灾害是渭河流域主要的气象灾害,对流域内经济特别是农业经济有严重的影响。本文利用近540年旱涝等级资料及近50年实测降雨资料,分析渭河流域旱涝演变趋势及旱涝时空分布特征,研究旱涝与气候变化关系及旱涝灾害事件。主要的研究进展如下:
1.渭河流域近540年旱涝等级演变规律:
在世纪尺度的干湿类型上,渭河流域15世纪末、16世纪属干旱型的,17世纪正常型,18-19世纪属湿润型,20世纪属正常世纪,21世纪初十年属偏旱型。
采用累积距平曲线方法,分析渭河流域近540年旱涝的阶段性变化,表明:渭河流域有较大的十一个旱涝阶段。即:1470-1533年的干旱阶段、1534-1580年的雨涝阶段、1581-1641年的干旱阶段、1642-1708年的雨涝阶段、1709-1720年为干旱阶段、1721-1783年为雨涝阶段、1784-1811年为干旱阶段、1812-1914年为雨涝阶段、1915-1928年为干旱阶段、1929-1966年为雨涝阶段、1967-2010年为干旱阶段。
采用小波分析方法,分析了渭河流域近540年旱涝的周期性,结果表明:渭河流域旱涝过程主要有371a、223a、151a、114a、72a的周期。
通过滑动t检验,分析了渭河流域近540年旱涝的突变年份,发现于1481、1492、1534、1579、1593、1628、1642、1683、1828、1882年发生突变,且存在世纪尺度的突变年份1642年。
1470-2010年的541年间共出现大旱年84次,高发期出现在20世纪,有21次,低发期出现在19世纪,有10次。大涝年份共出现74次,高发期也发生在20世纪,有21次,低发期出现在15世纪末和16世纪,十五世纪末没发生,十六世纪出现5次。
2.渭河流域近50年旱涝时空分布特征渭河流域近50年中旱涝出现的频率基本相同;渭河流域近50年旱涝的变化趋势并不显著。
渭河流域近50年旱涝变化存在显著地第一主周期34a,第二主周期15a;并于1966年发生旱涝突变,1966年以前处于相对雨涝阶段,1966年以后渭河流域处于相对干旱的阶段。
在近50年旱涝存在以下阶段变化:1960-1966年为偏涝的阶段;1967-1979年为偏旱阶段;1980-1984年为偏涝阶段;1985-1988年为上升与下降交替阶段;1989-2003年处于偏旱阶段;2004-2010年为偏旱阶段。
大旱和大涝年份至少都出现过6次,其中1994-1995年流域内除洛川、吴旗、环县、平凉、西吉站点外都发生连续大旱事件;西安和武功站1993-1995年连续三年持续大旱,天水站1994-1997年连续四年发生大旱事件,平凉2007-2009年发生连续三年大旱事件;其中1983-1984年华山、西安、武功、宝鸡连续发生大涝事件,这些站点也基本位于渭河干流的中下游;另外2009-2010年华山和西安两站发生连续两年大涝事件;西吉1967-1968年发生持续大涝事件。
3.旱涝与气候变化关系及旱涝事件的研究
渭河流域近540年旱涝灾害与气候变化总体对应关系较好,说明气候变化是旱涝灾害形成的主要原因。
渭河流域1581-1588年、1632-1640年、1875-1878年、1922-1932年发生了比较严重的旱灾事件;1662年、1755-1757年、1904年发生严重的涝灾事件,这些事件在历史上都造成了很悲惨的景象,如人口死亡、饥荒、人口迁移、社会动荡甚至政权更替。
关键词:渭河流域,旱涝时空分布,气候变化,旱涝事件

Other Abstract

Wei River basin is the birthplace of Chinese civilization, which involved in Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi provinces (districts). Wei River basin is located at the South edge of the loess plateau, northern slope of Qinling Mountains, a continental monsoon climate, arid and humid areas of the transition zone. Natural ecosystems vulnerable, sensitive to climate change, natural variability against poor. Droughts are a major meteorological disaster in Wei River basin, and seriously affect the economy, especially in agriculture. By recent 540 years of drought and flood level information, and nearly 50 years measured rainfall data, We analysis drought trend and temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and study on relationship between drought and flood disasters and climate change and the drought events.
1. Drought-flood evolution in Wei River for recent 540 years
Drought climate mainly appeared in the end of 15th century, 16th century, and
humid climate occupy the superiority in the 18th, 19th century; 17th, 20th century belongs to a normal century .
In Wei River basin climate change in the recent 540 years, there are 11th flood and drought stages, that is: 1470-1533relative flood stage; 1534-1580drought stage; 1581-1641 relative flood stage; 1642-1708 drought stage;1709-1720 drought stage ;1721-1783 relative flood stage; 1784-1811 drought stage;1812-1914relative flood stage; 1915-1928 drought stage;1929-1966 relative flood stage;1967-2010 drought stage.
By wavelet analysis method, we find the drought-flood level has periodical feature 371a, 223a, 151a, 114a, 72a.
By sliding t tests, there were seven abrupt points in Wei River basin drought years, and all occurred in the 1481, 1492 and 1534, 1579 and 1593, 1628 and 1642, 1683, 1828, and there is a century-scale abrupt change year of 1642.In the droughts and floods climate evolution of Wei River basin during the recent 540 years, big  drought year appeared 84 times, big flood year appeared 74 times, Big droughts years have the slightly larger number of emerging opportunities than big flood years.
2. Analysis on the spatiotemporal change of flood and drought in recent 50 years
Wei River basin near 50 years in the dry flood and drought appears of frequency basic same; the changes trend of flood and drought in recent 50 years does not significantly.
Wei River basin near 50 years has periodical feature 34a, 15a; and has a abrupt points in 1966.
There are 6th flood and drought stages, that is: 1960-1966 relative flood stage; 1967-1979 drought stage; 1980-1984relative flood stage; 1989-2003drought stage; 2004-2010 relative drought stage.
The drought year at least appears had 6 times all meteorological stations; except Luochuan, Wuqi ,Huanxian, and Pingliang, and Xiji site outside are occurs continuous drought event in1994-1995; Xian and Wugong station occurred three years continued drought in 1993-1995, Tianshui Station occurred drought event in1994-1997, Pingliang occurred drought event in 2007-2009; which Armand 1983-1984, Huashan, Xian,Wugong, Baoji occurred flood events in1983-1984, these sites are basic in middle and lower reaches of Wei River; also 2009-2010 Huashan, Xian occurred flood events; Xiji occurred flood events in 1967-1968.
3. Study on the relationship between climate change and drought and flood and drought and flood disasters events
Wei River basin flood and drought and climate change good overall correspondence in recent 540 years, shows climate change is a leading cause of drought and flood .
There were serious drought disasters events in 1581-1588s, 1632-1640s, 1875-1878s in Wei River basin; and 1662s, 1755-1757s, 1904s had flood disaster events, these events in history have caused a tragic scene, such as death, famine, migration of population, social unrest and even regime change.
Key Words: Wei River basin; temporal-spatial distribution; climate change; drought and flood events

Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8927
Collection水保所知识产出(1956---)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
段文明. 渭河流域旱涝灾害研究 渭河流域旱涝灾害研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2012.
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