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基于VAR 模型分析径流对降水和水土保持措施的响应
赵娟1,2; 穆兴民1,3; 高鹏1,3; 赵广举1,3
Source Publication泥沙研究

确定自然及人类活动对径流的影响程度是水文水资源科学的研究难点。根据1996 - 2012 年黄土高原
三条黄河支流的径流、降水及水土保持措施面积,采用VAR 模型方法评价降雨及水土保持措施对径流变化的
作用程度。结果表明: 年径流量对年降水量和水土保持措施面积的响应均具有滞后性,对当年各措施面积变
化均不响应; 各水土保持措施对年径流量的影响不是一成不变的, 15 年滞后期内径流有增有减,时间越长对
径流变化的影响越小。1996 - 2012 年间林地是减少径流的主导因素; 采用方差分解可知,各因素相对贡献程
度依次为: 草地< 封禁< 林地< 梯田< 坝地< 降水。从长期来看,水土保持措施对径流量减少的贡献可达

Other Abstract

It is difficult to the quantitatively evaluate the effects of human activities and natural factors on the
variation of river runoff and sediment in hydrology and water resources science. Based on the dates of precipitation,
runoff and amounts of water and soil conservation measures during 1996—2012 from three branches in
the middle reaches of the Yellow River,analyzed long-term response characteristics of river runoff in the context
of climate change and human activities using vector autoregression ( VAR) model. Results showed that response
of runoff usually lagged behind precipitation and soil and water conservation measures carried out,runoff
changes usually turned prominent on the second year and beyond the second year. Influences of different
kinds of soil and water conservation measures on runoff was not static in 15 lag periods. After soil and water
conservation measures were carried out,the longer times,the less the variation of runoff. Forestland was the
dominant factors in decreasing the runoff during the year of 1996 - 2012. By use of variance decomposition,
contribution degree of each factors followed as the order: grassland < protected-land < forestland < terraced
field < dam-field < precipitation,and that amounts of soil and water conservation measures accounted for above
60% reductions of annual runoff in a long-term,as time goes on,the contribution level will be increase.
The decrease of runoff resulted from the continuous increase of soil and water conservation measures.

Keyword径流 降水 水土保持措施 Var 模型 黄河
Indexed By中文核心期刊要目总览
Document Type期刊论文
3.中国科学院- 水利部水土保持研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
赵娟,穆兴民,高鹏,等. 基于VAR 模型分析径流对降水和水土保持措施的响应[J]. 泥沙研究,2017,42(4):37-44.
APA 赵娟,穆兴民,高鹏,&赵广举.(2017).基于VAR 模型分析径流对降水和水土保持措施的响应.泥沙研究,42(4),37-44.
MLA 赵娟,et al."基于VAR 模型分析径流对降水和水土保持措施的响应".泥沙研究 42.4(2017):37-44.
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