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Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100
Shouzhang Peng1,2; Chengcheng Gang1,2; Yang Cao1,2; Yunming Chen1,2; Chen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
SubtypeArticle
2018
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
description.correspondentemailymchen@ms.iswc.ac.cn
Volume38Issue:5Pages:2250-2264
AbstractThe Loess Plateau (LP) in China is sensitive to climate change because of its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. This study presents a detailed assessment of the climate change trends over the LP from 1901 to 2100 based on the 1-km spatial resolution climate data generated through delta downscaling. The following results are drawn: (1) Delta downscaling performs well in detecting the monthly precipitation and temperature over the LP based on the mean absolute error between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 general circulation models, the GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM1-M models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly precipitation and temperature in the future period, respectively. (2) The annual precipitation over the entire LP shows no significant trends in the historical and future periods. By contrast, the annual temperature shows a significantly increasing trend with 0.097 degrees C/10 year in the historical period (1901-2014) and with 0.113, 0.24, 0.355, and 0.558 degrees C/10 year in the future period (2015-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. (3) The significantly increasing trends in precipitation and temperature at each grid of the LP present various spatial distributions in terms of their magnitude. The significant trend magnitude calculated by the downscaled data has a larger range and a higher percentage of area - and is even observed at a small area-compared with that calculated by the raw data. (4) The spatial results calculated by the downscaled data provide more detailed information about the locations and percentages of area, both of which are valuable in assessing the change trends in precipitation and temperature. These spatio-temporal results present the climate change trends over the LP in detail and provide valuable insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the climate change challenges in this region.
KeywordClimate Change Delta Downscaling Mann-kendall Trend Test Sen's Slope Estimator Loess Plateau
Subject AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI10.1002/joc.5331
Indexed BySCI
Publication Place111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000428880600009
PublisherWILEY
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China'
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8268
Collection水保所科研产出--SCI_2018--SCI
Corresponding AuthorChen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
Affiliation1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
3.Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Shouzhang Peng,Chengcheng Gang,Yang Cao,et al. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(5):2250-2264.
APA Shouzhang Peng,Chengcheng Gang,Yang Cao,Yunming Chen,Chen, YM ,&Chen, YM .(2018).Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(5),2250-2264.
MLA Shouzhang Peng,et al."Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.5(2018):2250-2264.
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