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Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change
Gang, Chengcheng1,2; Zhang, Yanzhen3; Wang, Zhaoqi3; Chen, Yizhao3; Yang, Yue3; Li, Jianlong3; Cheng, Jimin1,2; Qi, Jiaguo4; Odeh, Inakwu5; Gang, CC (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
SubtypeArticle
2017
Source PublicationGLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
description.correspondentemailgangcheng024@gmail.com
Volume148Pages:153-165
AbstractUnderstanding how terrestrial ecosystems would respond to future climate change can substantially contribute to scientific evaluation of the interactions between vegetation and climate. To reveal the future climate impacts might on the nature and magnitude of global vegetation, the spatiotemporal distribution and net primary productivity (NPP) of global terrestrial biomes and their dynamics in this century were quantitatively simulated and compared by using the improved Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System and the segmentation model. The 33 general circulation models under the four scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were utilized to simulate the future climate change. The multi-model ensemble results showed that at the global scale, the distribution of forests and deserts would expand by more than 2% and 4% over this century, respectively. By contrast, more than 11% of grassland regions would shrink. Despite the considerable differences in the simulated responses of the biomes, the poleward movement or expansion of temperate forest were prominent features across all the scenarios. Meanwhile, the terrestrial NPP was projected to increase by 7.44, 9.51, 9.46, and 12.02 Pg DW. a(-1) in 2070s relative to 1970s in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The largest NPP decrease would occur in tundra & alpine steppe. NPP in the Tropical Zone, the North Temperate Zone, and the North Frigid Zone was estimated to increase in this century, whereas NPP in the South Temperate Zone was projected to decrease slightly across all scenarios. Overall, ecosystems in the mid-/high latitudes would be more vulnerable to future climate change in terms of distribution ranges and primary productivity despite the existing uncertainties. Some vegetation would benefit from the warmer and wetter climate. However, most of these plants would suffer and experience irreversible changes, particularly in the northern hemisphere. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordComprehensive And Sequential Classification System (Cscs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (Cmip5) Representative Concentration Pathways (Rcps) Multi-model Ensemble (Mme) Net Primary Productivity (Npp) Terrestrial Ecosystems
Subject AreaPhysical Geography ; Geology
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.007
URL查看原文
Indexed BySCI
Publication PlaceAMSTERDAM
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000393528200014
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339]
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8070
Collection水保所科研产出--SCI_2017--SCI
Corresponding AuthorGang, CC (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
Affiliation1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
3.Nanjing Univ, Global Change Res Inst, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Michigan State Univ, Ctr Global Change & Earth Observat, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA
5.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gang, Chengcheng,Zhang, Yanzhen,Wang, Zhaoqi,et al. Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2017,148:153-165.
APA Gang, Chengcheng.,Zhang, Yanzhen.,Wang, Zhaoqi.,Chen, Yizhao.,Yang, Yue.,...&Gang, CC .(2017).Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,148,153-165.
MLA Gang, Chengcheng,et al."Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 148(2017):153-165.
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