ISWC OpenIR  > 水保所知识产出(1956---)
近 549 年来黄河天然径流量时间变化特征研究
田鹏1; 穆兴民2,3; 赵广举2,3; 胡晋飞3; 高鹏2,3
2020
Source Publication水土保持学报
Volume34Issue:6Pages:65-69
Abstract

天然径流量是流域气候及下垫面综合作用的结果,同时是流域水资源分配的重要依据。深入探究长
时间序列年径流量时间变化特征对流域水资源调控以及水资源可持续利用意义重大。基于黄河 1470 —
2018 年长时间序列天然径流量数据,综合采用 EMD 经验模态分解法、滑动平均法以及距平累积法揭示黄
河549年间天然径流量的年际变化与周期变化特征。结果表明,黄河年天然径流量变化过程具有显著的
随机特征,随年份不同呈现波动性变化, 5%及95%频率的年天然径流量分别为337.
0亿 m
3 和681.
0亿

3 。采用距平累积法可将黄河近549年天然径流序列以1825年为界分为2个时期;黄河年天然径流量以
2. 8 年变化周期最为显著,其次为 23. 8 年、 47. 3 年、 5. 6 年、 11. 3 年周期规律,出现该周期性规律主要是由于
太阳黑子活动、厄尔尼诺现象以及地极移动振幅变化因子的影响。

Other Abstract

 Natural runoff reflects the effects of climate change and land surface variation , which is important
for water resources allocation in the basin.Further understanding long-term variations in natural runoff is
of great significance in water resources management.This study applied the empirical mode decomposition
method ( EMD ), moving average method and anomalous accumulation method to reveal the temporal and periodical
changes in natural runoff with long-term data from 1470to 2018in the Yellow River basin.The results showed that
annual natural runoff had a significant random characteristic , showing wet-dry fluctuations within different periods.
The annual natural runoff at 5%and 95%frequency were 33.
70billion m

and 68. 10billion m
3 ,
respectively.The
natural runoff of the Yellow River could be divided into two periods by the year of 1825.The EMD method
showed that the natural runoff had a significant periodical cycle of 2. 8years , followed by 23. 8years , 47. 3
years , 5. 6years and 11.
3years.The periodic feature was mainly influenced by
the Sunspot activity , El Nio
phenomenon and the amplitude changes factor of earth pole movement.

Keyword黄河 天然径流 EMD经验模态分解 周期分析
Indexed By中文核心期刊要目总览
Language中文
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/10044
Collection水保所知识产出(1956---)
Affiliation1.西北农林科技大学资源与环境学院
2.西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室
3.中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
田鹏,穆兴民,赵广举,等. 近 549 年来黄河天然径流量时间变化特征研究[J]. 水土保持学报,2020,34(6):65-69.
APA 田鹏,穆兴民,赵广举,胡晋飞,&高鹏.(2020).近 549 年来黄河天然径流量时间变化特征研究.水土保持学报,34(6),65-69.
MLA 田鹏,et al."近 549 年来黄河天然径流量时间变化特征研究".水土保持学报 34.6(2020):65-69.
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